MAR 25 > JUL 31

Phase I: Weekly discussion on life in 2060

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Week 2: The future of healthcare

Discussion of the Week, on This Topic

Dan Halvorsen

Clinical Exercise Physiologist, Exercise Medecine Center & Adjunct Assistant Professor, Integrative Biology and Physiology, University of Minnesota,

What do you think will be the biggest changes in healthcare in the next 50 years? How or why will those changes come about? What impacts will those changes have on our lives?

Check out Dan's video:

Also, to get you thinking, check out Microsoft's "Future Vision: Healthcare" video, taken from the Mix08 presenation by Daniel Makowski:

In your response, consider:

Average life expectancy. Will it be more or less than it is now? Why?
The aging population. What might change if there are more people over 70 than under 20?
Currently, many rural communities have trouble attracting physicians to practice. Will this trend continue? Why or why not?
Climate change. Will it impact our health? How?
Political will to spend as much as we do, or more, on healthcare.
Technological advances.
Other influencing factors.

Student Commentator Responses:

I certainly hope that in the next 50 years we can come up with a way to make healthcare more affordable and accessable to everyone. The major issue today is making it affordable. I absolutely hope we can find a way to make sure everyone is able to get the health care they need regardless of the money they have.

Climate change will definitely affect the health of the population as well as the health of the environment. The release of certain chemicals into the air, such as sulphur and excess nitrogen have detrimental impacts to human health. Sulphur can lead to the degradation of the brain as well as cause problems for the nervous system. Other chemicals are contributors to respiration problems and also can lead to a rise in cancer cases.

The other issue I see becoming even worse is the exposure to chemicals we seem to feel are completely harmless yet have incredibly long lasting health effects. Rachel Carson wrote in her book Silent Spring about pesticides and herbicides being mass applied, but those weren't the only chemicals released into the environment. There are plenty more, but we havent seen all of the effects yet. I suspect in the next fifty years the effects of the other chemicals out there will really start to set in.

Politicians are working for the betterment of the people (in theory), and while they are quite aware of the economic aspect, I feel like the importance of well being and health in America (or the world for that matter) should really take precedence.

Technology is really and truly amazing in that with every coming day there are new discoveries and breakthroughs in the medical technology. Whether the technology in detecting issues improves or the technology to start to fix health issues improves either way I can only see the technology being a benefit as we find new and more efficient ways to treat and diagnose diseases.

You would think with all the break throughs in technology and the medical field in general, the life expectancy would be a sure shot to improve, however, until the other problems are fixed, I can't see it going anywhere but down. In fifty years, if the environmental issues aren't addressed, I can't honestly see people living to their 70's.

Ann D.

Hannah, I certainly agree with some of your statements about the issues that could come up in relation to things like climate change and pollution.

For the first time in a while (or so I've heard) some people are predicting that the life expectancy has started to go down. It going down doesn't necessarily effect our transportation needs, so much as why it is going down. People are getting illnesses due to lifestyle choices and the more health issues they have, the more treatment they need and the more they need to personally go in and consult a physician.

Technological advances definitely do need to be considered too. I think we can expect a lot more at home, and self tests and remedies. I think technology will also change the kinds of illnesses. We may not be exposed to as many bacterial illnesses if we stay more confined to our homes. So then we are looking at a whole knew set of treatments for different problems, that even if we try to prepare for, we may encounter many challenges.

Pressure from citizens will probably encourage more government funding/ money to go into healthcare. I think political changes would actually be one of our smallest concerns. The government will change to please as many citizens as they can, whether it is for personal benefit and/ or the personal benefit of the country.

Louise E.

I agree with Hannah that affordability and accessibility of health care is one of the most pressing issues for the future. I feel that health care in general has become more about making money as businesses and less about taking care of patients. Companies try to sell you medications through advertisements on TV/websites. and doctors can only meet with patients for 15 min. because they have to get through so many patients in a day. Also, the only solution that conventional doctors seem to have to anything is to administer pills. Although alternative medicine practices such as acupuncture, herbal medications or shiatsu may not work miracles, they can definitely be effective in relieving pain, fighting depression etc. A healthcare approach that would allow for more flexibility in methods and types of medication would be more effective because patients would be able to explore different options and find what worked for them.

This idea also ties into having a more personalized healthcare system where treatments could be prescribed more based on lifestyle rather than weight/gender/age (although this is still important). Also, personalized healthcare would create a stronger relationship between the doctors and patients. Increased communication between patients and doctors would result in fewer errors in prescriptions, and less misunderstandings. I can see how having communication with doctors via the internet and technology could be helpful especially for elderly people who are house bound. Also, it could allow patients access to opinions of multiple doctors easily, avoiding having to schedule multiple appointments. However, I don’t think appointments via technology could ever completely replace in person visits. Using technology regularly to communicate medical information would pose issues concerning privacy of medical records as well.

I liked Halvorsen’s ideas on increasing walking and biking as modes of transportation in order to reduce obesity. With school budget cuts, many physical education classes have been cut back/eliminated, adding to the increase of obesity in children. Also, another issue that connects healthcare and transportation is the transportation of elderly and the disabled. I recently read an article in the Star Tribune that briefly touched on this subject: http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/120428474.html (article found here)

Joey L.

Life expectancy is probably going to see a decline in the next 50 years, due to the ongoing rise in obesity. A lot of this rise has to do with the rise in technological development, from the Playstation to the television, and with diet. Kids these days have little time for exercising or caring about what they eat. As shown in Supersize Me, most kindergardners know who Ronald McDonald is before they know who George Washington is. While that experiment may be extreme, there are people, even kids who eat nothing but fast food. Also, as kids (and adults too, but I'm just referring to our own and to future generations) spend more time in sedentary activities. One thing that restrains people actually getting to healthy foods is the so-called "food deserts". What this means is that in a developed area (Chicago is one example) it has become hard to get healthy, affordable food. So what this does is open a doorway for cheaper, non-nutrious food to get new buyers, people who are reliant on what they can get from this source, regardless of the healthiness of said sources (FAST FOOD).

Climate change impacting our health is another issue. If you've been hit by the recent string of tornadoes in the South, you know this for a fact! But seriously, shrinking ozone and air pollution in large cities is leading to damage to your skin, lungs and other parts of your body. Smog, for instance, is a makeup of air pollutants and fog that hangs around cities. Los Angeles has a lot of smog. What it does, beside weaken building supports and rust metal, is damage the lungs of younger and elderly people. There have been studies that link smog exposure to asthma development in younger people. It would not surprise me that as more pollutants are released into the air, more and more damaging conditions to humans will soon be observed, if they haven't been already.

Nafiso Mahad

Health care is one of the biggest conflicts people deal with?Health care effects our everyday lives. , I believe that in the near future the governement will more or less provide coverage to millions of uninsured citizens. But the way to get it will probably be hard. There would probably be large amounts of taxes because if this. The technology will increase and so will the medicine. There would be less interactiveness betwwen the doctors and the patients. It seems as though, technology always decreases our social skills. MONEY-will be the underlying reason for treating patients. Therefore, causing doubt within patients, I also believe that medicine will be less trusted. Doctors will become too advanced to a point where natural remedies are considered by the patients.

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by Joey L. on May 3, 2011 @ 12:48pm

Hannah - Side note- Yes I did. The reason this highly amuses me is because the stock majority in Chipotle is owned by McDonalds.

In answer to your question about organic foods, no. I don't think it will change our image abroad as an obese country . Part of the reason that healthful food or vegetables/fruit are passed over is the cost. Most organic food is heinously expensive, even regular grocery store healthful food costs significantly more than the processed food on the shelves. Many poor areas can't afford the good food that is being sold, when compared to the cheap McDonalds across the street. Michael Pollens book Omnivore's Dilemma talks about this.

Michelle Obama's program, while I believe is a good idea, is also taking a lot of heat for what many people believe is an infringement on their rights, since some think that it would allow the government to control what they eat.

Also on a side note: Hannah, I noticed you wrote something about a shamanism book. Try The Horse Boy, the book or the documentary. Its about an autistic boy who's father brings him to Mongolia to help him. Its a great true story, and actually does connect with health care.

by Lindsey Alexander on May 2, 2011 @ 9:48am

Daniel, you've hit on something I think is very important. Think about the impact of fewer young people. How are they viewed today? How would they be viewed if they were a "scarce" resource? When you say "spoil" what do you mean? How would society "spoil" them?

by Daniel B. on May 2, 2011 @ 9:42am

i think people will live much longer becasue of super machines. If there are more people that are 70 than to the old people will probaly spoil the kids more than than tehy usualy would becausethere will be more ''old people''

and less adults.

by Lindsey Alexander on May 2, 2011 @ 2:12am

Hey everyone! Great discussion!

I wanted to post the summary I put together of your discussion through mid-April. This was provided to Mn/DOT as they engaged in the development of a few future scenarios. We'll use these scenarios in the coming weeks. You can find this document here (title: SSO Minnesota GO! Summary 18April11).

by Liz F. on May 1, 2011 @ 6:10pm

Also - like Nafiso said, medicine will be less trusted. And so it should be. Why eat a tablet of virus to prevent the common cold or cough? Can't we find some natural remedy, like dandelions? I'm afraid doctors and scientists are also "greedy" for money that they overlook simple problems (like too many dandelions, but in reality they could make a medicine out of dandelions). If they start using dandelions and the world knows about it, then won't they start weeding their gardens and stop buying antibiotics?

I'm planning on solving the dandelion crisis by trying to formulate a medicine out of dandelion this summer. I've got really interested in this subject of healthcare, so please don't mind if I may go on...

Seeing obese people really makes me want to... I don't know, I think it might drive me crazy. There's got to be a solution that can solve both the energy and obese crisis! If only we could use this "energy" as an incentive to get people moving and back down to Earth; which would ultimately make them lose that extra pound or two. Well, of course, riding the bus is so much easier than walking or running.

Could it be possible, although a bit silly, to have a rule that you have to carpool with someone? Well, not everyday, but at least once every few days? Make it into everyone's minds that if they want to go somewhere, they'll either have to walk or carpool. Walking is exercise, and carpool saves energy... couldn't we build from there? Any other thoughts?

by Liz F. on May 1, 2011 @ 6:02pm

I definitely agree with Hannah that affordability is a huge factor. If we can't guarantee next day, week, or month's food, then how can we even afford insurance?

I liked how Dr. Halvorsen said something about obesity. It really strikes me to see that obesity will go up in the near future. This allows me to conclude that life expectancy will go down, because of these illnesses we are causing upon ourselves. Who knows, 50 years from now, we'll have even more sex-induced or alcohol related diseases. Our intolerance will lead us to do reckless things. Well, for the elderly, if they aren't carrying a huge tire of fat (not on the hips, but on the stomach as well) and they get good care, I think then we would live quite long. My grandparents outlived most of their friends, beating them in the race while taking morning and afternoon walks every day. They recently died, almost into 100 years old, of cancer. Shouldn't we all be like that - exercise reguarly and commit it into our daily routine so that we *at least* get to take a walk outside and enjoy the nice weather? Not only inside, such as gyms or treadmills, but outside. Have more nature parks, or for teens, field trips out at zoos or somewhere edcational. Where are all the outdoor swimming pools? Don't old people love taking baths? Especially when pampered...

If you say climate change, I'll say pollution, global warming, yes we're all causing this. Don't smoke, don't drive cars, don't keep those lights on, don't hog the TV, computer, or Black Ops the game itself.

I think one reason why we don't exercise is because there's no incentive. Asides from health freaks who want to look good as well as eat right, there are people out there who are happy when they eat and even more so when they sleep. There are so many video games that target young children; I even think TV may be a bit bad. Although a bit hypocritcal for me to say this as I sit on the computer a few hours at a time, I still feel we need to diminish the use of electronics. Things are definitely getting easier as we go more into the cellphone, iPod, iPhone, iTouch, and now the iPad, and oh iPad 2, but these are the things that make us sit down and text.

I might be going a bit overboard with my actual suggestions, but I'd like to contribute my thoughts for some more thoughts.

Nobody likes to weed their lawn, right? We use pesticides instead. Like Hannah had mentioned before, pesticides are only the introductory for us to be exposed to chemicals. Dandelions are, in fact, quite healthy and have many medicinal properties! Before I get ahead of myself, you might want to do some research on its healing properties. This is one thing I will never fail to say to anyone: need exercise? Go out to your garden and weed those dandelions before you spray them with harmful substances! And then that dandelion can, for teenagers, get rid of pimples, and for elderly, be a calm diuretic and relaxing medicine. This also contributes to antibiotic resistance, which is asking for more money to be spent on medicinal advances so there can be more antibiotics. Antibiotics may also be harmful in the long run as well.

We need more incentives to remain actively fit. Please, replace any violent/pointless games that make you sit on the couch for hours with games that at least suggest physical activity. The new Wii Fit, everyone?

Something I'd like to share - I think it's interesting; when I visit China every few years or so, I can't seem to pick out a single overweight child. I'm not saying that everyone should be Chinese. There are probably many other places that advocate healthy living as their main goal as well. Every morning at a school in China, the students would line up outside and do probably 30-60 minutes of exercise, such as kung fu or similar things for older children, and for the younger elementary students, jumping jacks or playing outside (aka jump ropes, running around, no playground but a lot of open space). A thing I've noticed in America is that many students, as they grow older, say "I'm lazy" or "that's stupid" or "I'm too old to play". Everybody can text, so why go outside and have playdates?

by Lindsey Alexander on Apr 30, 2011 @ 9:30am

Hannah, you mention of Chipotle made me think of what sorts of responsibilities we have for ensuring our collective health. For example, it seems Chipotle is taking some (I don't know how much) amount of corporate responsibility and providing healthy food options. Michelle Obama is promoting the "Let's Move" campaign. What responsibility do corporations have in the health of society? What about individual citizens - what is our responsibility? Government?

by Hannah Oakes on Apr 29, 2011 @ 11:40am

Have any of you read or heard of "The Population Bomb" by Paul Ehrlich and his wife? It was written back in 1968 and it addressed the issue of overpopulation.. there's a pdf version floating around on the web that is Mr. Ehrlich going back to "The Population Bomb" in 2009 and commenting on his views as of the present time.. It's really interesting as we talk about the life expectancy.. Environmental issues, I know I really focused on in my previous post.. but the other thing to really look at is this idea of population. how big is too big? Are we going to have an issue of an overpopulated nation.. world.. planet.. coming in the future?

Also floating out there on the web is an essay called "The Tragedy of the Commons" by Garret Hardin. He also talks about overpopulation.. and also the overexploitation of resources as everyone takes away what they think they want or are entitled to without really thinking about the other consequences.. how does it effect the commons as a whole? (It's a pretty heavy read if you decide to look into it.. but it's also really interesting.. his theory is actually pretty cool)

Wow, I feel like I'm throwing out a ton of different literature ideas.. but Louise.. you talk about alternative medicinal practices and I'm wondering if you've (or anyone else) has ever looked at shamanism? There's a book called Tales of A Shaman's Apprentice.. one of my absolute favorites.. it's about Ethnobotany.. looking at the cultural roots (pardon the pun) of plants and the importance and foundation some of the plants in the Amazon have to indigenous cultures.. specifically it addresses the loss of the shamanic practice as indigenous cultures become more and more.. civilized.Pretty interesting.. there's a scene where there's a healing ritual and the author, Dr. Mark J Plotkin watches the actual process and how it really works.. He also goes through and shows how these cultures are able to overcome ailments that we would take yet another perscribed pill for simply by using the plants around them.. really really interesting..

Joey.. the growing problem of obesity.. or even just the idea of how unhealthy our society as a whole has been is really being brought up by Michelle Obama these days.. her campaign to get schools serving more nutritous meals and for kids to really get up and MOVE, I hope, really will help. There was a Nobel Conference this past fall at Gustavus Adolphus college here in Minnesota that I was fortunate enough to attend with some of my friends from school, and the topic this year was Food! Nobel Laureates talked about how to make food good.. as the official title of the conference was "Making Food Good".Here at the conference they talked about the idea of hybridizing food crops, the topic of obesity came up, as well as a ton of other really curious topics relating to the rise of organic farms and whether the crops grown organically are really worth that extra money.. any ideas on whether or not organic foods might help to counter this idea that obesity will become (if it hasn't already) the image of our nation?

On Earth Day, because I go to an Environmental School, we had speakers come and give presentations about reducing carbon footprints.. there was one speaker who talked to us about the idea of growing your own food. I think while Chicago is a "food desert" there is always the option of growing your own vegetables.. Our family grows peppers and tomatoes to make homemade food.. and our neighbors grow their own pumpkins, cucumbers, and some other vegetables.. in their little suburban backyards.. I think.. the answer to accessability of healthy food really lies in a person's desire for those healthier options. The speaker who came, talked about the foods he makes in his own backyard.. and it was really intense to think about.. Even going so far as raising a couple chickens (have any of you heard of Mimi Holmes?) to get fresh eggs.. it's not incredibly difficult.. it's just getting the motivation to actually do it.

Side note.. for you Joey.. have you ever looked into the measure Chipotle has taken to make their food better for the consumers? I really would suggest it.. It's really interesting to see what they're doing to make sure their food is better for the people..they're really looking at the problem of obesity.. and trying to make sure they aren't contributers to the problem.. super cool to read about.